Stritar's chronolog

The Risk board game dice roll probability calculator and battle simulator

Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:32:12 GMT

I know there are plenty of you out there who love to play the board game Risk. We're hooked on the Lord Of The Rings edition, and I still need to check out the very rare expansion pack one of my friends recently got. As you will see, I'm getting ready for it with all I've got, developing myself a weapon that will help me dominate the game. Something that will turn the odds in my favor without actually cheating. Say hi to my Risk battle simulator, which is able to calculate the chance of winning for specific Risk situations.

Launch

Risk is an interesting game, powered by simple mathematics. In the battle, the attacker throws three dice, the defender throws two. The attacker's advantage is the one extra die. The defender's advantage is that he/she wins when the dice are tied. Which, in the general situation of 3 dice vs. 2 dice roll, translates into the following odds: the attacker has 37.17% chance of winning, the defender has 33.58% chance of winning, and there's a 29.26 % chance of tie - they will both lose one army. But what about specific situations? How can I know if my 10 armies are enough against my opponent's 5+4?

Since I'm a developer and not a mathematician, I decided I will rather build a simple brute force JavaScript simulator than try to derive the formula behind the battles. An application that simulates 10.000 Risk fights (around 50.000 dice rolls) and calculates the result odds. That should be enough to make an approximation, right?

Risk's rules specify that the attacker always has to leave one army behind (can't use it to attack), and can attack any number of territories in a single turn. Which the calculator also takes into account. Every territory the attacker wins, his/her number of armies is subtracted by 1 (one army is left behind), and the last army is not able to attack. I think I got it right, but if you find and error, please let me know.

Risk dice roll battle simulation.

Besides, the simulator also knows how to calculate probabilities for specific single battle situations for different numbers of dice the attacker and defender throw, by going through all the possibilities of dice throw results (which means 7.776 (6⁵) different dice throws in 3 vs. 2 battle).

Risk dice roll possibilities and odds.

I made this to help myself and others understand and appreciate the statistics behind the dice. So, the next time you play Risk, don't forget to bring your phone and use the simulator to your unfair advantage. And if you're a developer, feel free to upgrade the algorithm (available on Github). Game on.

http://diceroll.stritar.net/risk.html
https://github.com/gstritar/DiceRoll

On iPhone, toys, the enterprise and of course, Windows 8

Wed, 01 Aug 2012 07:34:06 GMT

Flashback 5 years ago. In 2007, Apple introduced the iPhone, the original model, which had no 3G support and cost more than any other mobile phone. At that time, Nokia dominated the market, with almost 40% market share, and Samsung was gaining ground on Motorola, both owning around 15% of the industry sales. Funny, how things change in so little time, but what's even funnier, is how the competition reacted to the iPhone. Some of you may remember how Steve Ballmer, Microsoft's CEO, laughed at the iPhone, saying that it's pretty much an expensive toy that would never penetrate the enterprise. History proved him wrong, and we can only guess if this was one of the most bitter predictions he ever made.

Apple proved that with proper marketing, a toy can find its place in the enterprise, a place traditionally owned by Microsoft. We must understand that even if a lot of Microsoft's revenue does come from the Windows division, most of it still comes from their enterprise business (Business Division + Server and Tools). But is the enterprise ready for a radical user interface such as Windows 8's Metro? I hope Microsoft isn't overcompensating for the totally wrong estimate about the success of the iPhone, because it's hard to believe they will be able to pull something similar off. Sell another toy to the enterprise.

I love Windows Phone 7. The user interface is great, the user experience is intuitive and fun. I like what I've seen about Windows 8. I think it's fresh and modern, something that even Apple could be proud of. But what worries me is its adoption in business environments, which is Microsoft's core business. The phone and a tablet are primarily casual gadgets, the personal computer is not. And there is already quite a bit of bad press around about the upcoming new version of Windows. Some have already said the next Vista situation might happen, and that most people will stay on Windows 7, like they did on XP before.

I think the average user in the enterprise in not that tech-savvy. Imagine a 50 year old secretary, struggling with the new fundamentally different environment of Windows 8. Businesses have already had problems with implementing the new Office 2007, at it was only slightly different than the previous version (compared to the differences between Windows 8 and Windows 7). Who will pay for the massive training required by users to adapt to the new Windows? Which company will risk it?

Of course, I might be wrong and Microsoft isn't primarily interested in the enterprise with this release. Maybe they are just trying to own a bigger share of the consumer markets, and targeting mostly smartphones and tablets, hardware included. This might be an interesting strategy, since adoption of Macs has also grown with the success of the iPhone and iPad. I hope they have a solid plan behind it, because I would like to see Windows 8 succeed. Because Windows 7 and Windows Phone 7 actually did higher my perception of Microsoft, they made me believe Windows can be awesome. But to succeed, Windows 8 will have to be more than awesome, the way it's done, it will have to be so amazing my mother will be able to use it on her first try. Otherwise she won't.

Project 5000: Assembling a 5.000 piece jigsaw puzzle of an ancient map

Sun, 16 Oct 2011 17:24:17 GMT

Sometimes you need something to set your mind at ease. That's why @TejaSmeja in I decided to build a 5.000 piece jigsaw puzzle, an ancient map of the world from 1630 by Ravensburger. It took us about two months or an estimated 500 hours of effective work, but it was fun and definitely worth the time. Looking at thousand of similar pieces for hours is a great way to relax after stressful work, the progress is very challenging and the results mentally very rewarding.

We've been evolving the technique as we went along, approaching the jigsaw puzzle in the following order:

the puzzle edges
the equator and world edges
the poles and the tropic
at this point, we've split apart. Mateja started working on the pictures around the world, I started working on the map.
we almost managed to put all the pieces out of the box. About one room of space.
I worked on the world from the inside out (since meridians and parallels are the most vertical and horizontal in the center)
Mateja worked on the pictures surrounding the world one by one, since each had specific colors
we've been adding significant elements as we went along (coastlines, signs, faces, etc.)
we used regular A4 sheets of paper for categorization and transporting
the sea came last since the pieces were very similar to each other. But It became easier with every step, since there were fewer left.

Here are a few pictures representing our assembly of Nova totius Terrarum Orbis geographica ac hydrographica tabula. It was fun, so if you're searching for a new hobby for the next few months, jigsaw puzzles could be something worth looking at. We will probably do another one one day, when we find a big one we like.

Opening the box and noticing there are too many pieces to fit in the room

Assembling the edges

Working on the equator and the edges of the world

Connecting the equator and the edges of the world to puzzle edges

Doing the poles and the tropic

Assembling the outer pictures and the world from the inside out

The bottom pictures are done, the world is coming together

The jigsaw puzzle is almost complete, all that's missing is the sea

The final masterpiece

Bonus: finding a piece with your name on it

Stunning Lego applications, creations and art

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 19:33:26 GMT

Lego started producing the already iconic toy in 1949. Since than, a few variations of the brick have been designed, but all made after 1958 are compatible. More than 50 years of models, themes, worlds, colors and fun for the young and the old. Yup, you heard it right, the old are mad about Lego. Because Legos are cool, Legos are pop, Legos are viral and Legos are really loved by the web society.

A blend of availability, tradition, flexibility, compatibility and creativity stimulation helped Legos become more than a toy. They became a platform, a concept, an artistic medium, and mostly, they became a cult. There are a lot of creative applications and creations around, but a few of them are specially worth mentioning.

The minifig society

Supposedly there are billions of minifigs in the world. Pretty impressive. They come in thousands of types and some of the greatest fans were actually able to make a detailed timeline of the minifigs. The Star Wars edition alone has more than 150 different minifigs, and this poster just makes you want to have 'em all.

Lego photography

There are a few cool pages that combine Legos with photography. If you're interested in that sort of stuff, you should check out album covers in Lego, or this amazing classic photography reconstructions.

Video edits

Perhaps even more popular than pictures, the video edits range from Star Wars videos, arcade games simulations and funny films, such as The Dark Knight trailer. One of the most popular is The Simpsons intro. I've said it before, people have too much time.

Robotics

Since Mindstorms came around, Legos gained eyes, ears, hands and programming logic. This means that things such as a money safe, Rubic cube solver or even the Touring machine (a primitive computer) are possible to build. The only limit is one's creativity and sadly, budget.

Amazing constructions

Artistic and giant Lego sets are being built by many people. Diversified lists can be found here, here and here. Other sculptures worth mentioning are the aircraft carrier and the Space Shuttle. Some other freaks made a 5 million brick boulder, which accidentally crashed into a car. The number of bricks is unconfirmed, because in England they made a 30m tall tower using just 500.000 of them. Below you can see Barack Obama's inauguration.

The Millenium Falcon

The Ultimate Collector's Millenium Falcon (that's Harisson Ford's space ship in Star Wars) is the biggest Lego set ever made. You can describe it in one word: Awesome. 5.195 pieces and a price tag of 500€. Ouch. Still, it is probably every Lego fan's dream.

There you have it, Lego fun for the whole family and all the different tastes. I told you Legos were cool.